The government raised approximately GH¢120.2 billion from the Treasury bill market during the first four months of 2026, according to data from the Bank of Ghana.
The amount mobilised came against total investor bids of about GH¢181.5 billion, reflecting a cautious and measured borrowing strategy by the Treasury as it sought to balance financing needs with efforts to contain borrowing costs.
The Treasury bill market experienced two distinct phases during the review period. From January to mid-March, investor appetite remained exceptionally strong, resulting in 11 consecutive oversubscribed auctions.
During that period, investors consistently submitted bids far above the government’s target amounts, highlighting robust liquidity conditions and sustained confidence in short-term government securities.
Investor demand peaked in mid-February when total bids reached GH¢22.67 billion against a target of GH¢6.42 billion. The sharp oversubscription underscored the attractiveness of Treasury bills at the time, particularly as yields remained relatively elevated compared to later months.
However, market conditions shifted noticeably from late March into April. As Treasury bill yields declined sharply, investor demand weakened considerably, leading to six consecutive undersubscribed auctions.
One of the most significant shortfalls was recorded during Tender 2002, where investors submitted bids worth GH¢5.31 billion against a target of GH¢7.57 billion, leaving the auction nearly 30 percent below target.
The changing market environment also influenced investor preferences across the various tenors. At the beginning of the year, longer-dated instruments attracted stronger demand, with the 364-day Treasury bill recording bids of about GH¢15.18 billion in January. Investors appeared willing to lock in higher yields for extended periods.
By the end of April, however, demand for the same instrument had fallen sharply to approximately GH¢3.12 billion, suggesting reduced appetite for longer-duration commitments as interest rates eased.
In the final April auction, demand was concentrated largely at the shorter end of the market. The 91-day bill attracted bids worth GH¢2.8 billion, with GH¢2.7 billion accepted by the Treasury. The 182-day bill received GH¢717.6 million in bids, of which GH¢664.4 million was accepted.
Meanwhile, the 364-day bill attracted GH¢960.1 million in bids, but only GH¢522.5 million was accepted.
The sharp decline in interest rates played a central role in moderating investor demand. At the start of the year, the average yield on the 91-day Treasury bill stood at 11.12 percent, while the 364-day bill offered 12.93 percent.
By the end of April, yields had fallen significantly, with the 91-day bill dropping to 4.92 percent and the 364-day bill easing to 10.20 percent.
Analysts say the government capitalised on strong liquidity conditions in the first quarter to front-load its borrowing programme while rates remained relatively high.
As yields declined and investor demand softened, the Treasury adopted a more disciplined issuance strategy, rejecting a sizeable portion of bids to avoid locking in borrowing at less favourable levels.
Overall, developments in the Treasury bill market point to a deliberate strategy aimed at balancing the government’s financing requirements with prudent debt and interest rate management within an evolving market environment.
