Oil prices surged by more than 7% back above $100 a barrel on Monday after US President Donald Trump ordered the blockading of Iranian ports following the failure of peace talks between Washington and Tehran.
Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, jumped to $102.30 a barrel (£76.32), while West Texas Intermediate rose by 8.7% to $104.94.
The cost of a barrel of oil had plunged well below $100 last Wednesday after the US and Iran struck a conditional two-week ceasefire deal that included opening the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for global oil and gas supplies.
However the failure of negotiations has raised concerns that the global energy crisis will deepen.
The strait, through which a fifth of the world’s energy shipments pass, has become a flashpoint of the conflict after Iran retaliated against US-Israeli strikes by threatening to attack vessels that try to use the waterway.
Shipments have largely been at a standstill since the US-Israel war with Iran started on 28 February, leading to energy prices surging around the world and pushing up costs for consumers, in particular making petrol and diesel more expensive.
However, Iran has continued to export oil.
Windward, the maritime intelligence firm, said that since 1 March more than 58 million barrels of oil have left Kharg Island, Iran’s main outlet for crude exports. It said more than 90% of these have been directed toward China.
On Sunday, Trump announced that “effective immediately”, the US Navy “will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz”.
US Central Command later said it would block all vessels entering and exiting Iranian ports and coastal areas in the Strait from 10:00 EST (15:00 BST) on Monday.
It said the blockade would not apply to ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.
On Monday, the Unified Command of Iranian Armed Forces said that US restrictions on vessels in international waters were “illegal and constitute piracy”.
It added that Iran would implement a “permanent mechanism to control the Strait of Hormuz following US threats”.
China has called for restraint.
“The Strait of Hormuz is an important international trade route for goods and energy, and maintaining its security, stability and unimpeded flow is in the common interest of the international community,” a spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry said.
Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, said Trump’s blockade may be “designed to pressure Beijing into playing a more active role in mediating a ceasefire and reopening full trade flows through the Strait”.
Will the ceasefire hold?
Chua Yeow Hwee, an economist from Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, said: “Oil prices are likely to remain elevated because expectations now depend on whether the blockade is fully implemented, whether shipping disruptions spread, and whether diplomacy resumes.”
Analyst Saul Kavonic from financial services firm MST Marquee told the BBC “oil prices are not as high as they normally would be” given the scale of disruption to supplies because traders still hope shipments will resume soon,”
“But if that doesn’t happen, oil prices will head higher,” Kavonic added.
David Satterfield, former Special Envoy for Middle East Humanitarian Issues, also pointed out that it is not just oil and gas that is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz.
“It is about 30% of the world’s aluminium, it is 30% of the world’s helium, it is up to 50% of the feed stocks for fertilizers around the world and it is about 17% of all polymers,” he told the BBC’s Today programme.
“The Gulf is a critical global supply point far beyond hydrocarbons and the impact, if this goes on for several more weeks, is going to become quite profound beyond the cost of petrol and diesel at the pump.”
There is also the question of whether the two-week ceasefire will hold, according to Marcus Baker, global head of marine and cargo at risk insurance firm Marsh.
“Will the Iranians decide that actually, despite what the US has said, they will continue to honour the ceasefire,” he said.
“Clearly, if that happens we will get much more confidence coming back into the market and I think the durability of that ceasefire is really critical to what happens next.”
Stock markets in Europe opened lower. The UK’s FTSE 100 fell 0.5%, while France’s Cac index and Germany’s Dax index were both down by 1%.
Major stock indexes in Asia closed down. Japan’s Nikkei 225 in Japan ended 0.7% lower and South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.9%.
Countries in Asia have been hit especially hard by the fallout of the Iran war as they are heavily reliant on oil from the Middle East.
Credit: BBC
