A new policy review suggests electricity consumers in Ghana may have paid significantly more than required for power in late 2025, raising fresh questions about the country’s tariff-setting framework.
The Centre for Environmental Management and Sustainable Energy (CEMSE) estimates that households and businesses overpaid roughly GH¢1.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The group attributes the excess charges to the exchange rate and inflation projections used by the Public Utilities Regulatory Commission (PURC) that exceeded actual economic conditions.
CEMSE argues the development supports a substantial reduction in tariffs — likely about 11 per cent — in the first quarter of 2026.
PURC based its Q4 tariff review on a projected exchange rate of GH¢11.9735 to the dollar, later revised to GH¢12.3715 to address under-recovery claims.
In reality, the cedi averaged GH¢10.8733 to the dollar over the period, implying an over-recovery of about GH¢1.1002 per dollar.
Applied to quarterly consumption of 6,459 gigawatt-hours and assuming that 60 per cent of generation costs are dollar-linked, the discrepancy translates into approximately GH¢1.5 billion in excess payments, according to the report.
Inflation assumptions also diverged sharply from actual data. PURC used an annual rate of 12.43 per cent in its model, while average inflation during the quarter was 6.6 per cent.
The report further notes that tariff increases have not produced stable revenue for the Electricity Company of Ghana.
Monthly collections fluctuated widely in 2025, rising and falling even after upward tariff adjustments, suggesting price hikes alone may not resolve the utility’s financial challenges.
With the exchange rate currently near GH¢10.99 to the dollar and projected inflation for Q1 2026 at 3.4 per cent, CEMSE contends that maintaining current tariffs would undermine confidence in the quarterly review system.
It is calling on regulators to account for over-recoveries by crediting consumers before implementing any new tariff decisions, cautioning that failure to do so could weaken trust in the regulatory regime and increase financial strain on both households and businesses.
