By Richmond Ampofo Fordjour (UniMAC-IJ)
2024 is a year that will leave an imprint on the history of democracy as 50 countries will go to the polls to decide which party, candidate or policies will shape their Nation building in the next tenure of government. Notable elections have already been conducted which has been a wave of election dynamics especially in Africa with the dominant ANC party of South Africa losing majority and forming a coalition government for the first time in the democracy of the hitherto apartheid nation. The surge in rejection of French intervention and macro-economic instability also culminated in the election of Diomaye Faye who topped the polls weeks after exiting prison in Senegal.
Ghana’s upcoming elections will be historic as a former president seeks to stage a comeback whilst the ruling party also seeks to perpetuate their governance beyond the 8-years cycle, hence the mantra “Breaking the 8”.
Pre-Election polls are an important element of every electoral process across every nation. It has either hit the target or missed it in the previous elections held in Ghana. The credibility of a poll is measured by the outcome of the elections. Pre -election polls give voters the opportunity to express their views, informs political actors and It makes the political process more gratifying, challenging and thought-provoking.
With barely 5 months left to the 7th December event, a number of surveys have made projections about who will be sworn into office on January 7, 2025. Two polls have been defining and garnered conversation in the political space, the Baseline survey and the Global Info Analytics polls. With every polls, comes a margin of error which in essence informs the general public there could be a surprise element in the main elections. But a margin of error usually shouldn’t be huge giving room for a higher confidence in the result else a dent on the credibility of the polls.
The two polls and their credibility
The Baseline Survey has been in the conversation with its predictions which has been in contrast to what other polls have predicted. Credibility is a non-negotiable element of every polls hence an analysis of previous polls should make up the credibility status of a pollster. In the 2020 elections, the Baseline Survey’s prediction hit the target with minuscule change. It predicted President Akufo-Addo, then Flagbearer of the New Patriotic Party to poll 54.1% of the votes, with John Dramani Mahama, the flagbearer of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) polling a maximum of 47.1%. After the Electoral Commission collated the results, Akufo-Addo garnered 51.4% as predicted whiles John Mahama polled 47.3%. On this basis, the 2020 polls were accurate.
The Global Info Analytics have also come out with polls for April 2024 and July, 2024 which have varying results. The varying results are a proof of the changes that can happen as a result of many factors which includes manifesto promises, effective campaign strategies, and others. However, in their previous poll conducted on the Ejisu by-election was off the mark. Following the demise of John Kumah, the Member of parliament of the Ejisu Constituency, Global Info Analytics predicted the Parliamentary Candidate of the NPP, Kwabena Boateng to win by 50.6% and his tight contender, Kwabena Owusu Aduomi chasing with 47.5% in the by-election. After the polls ended and the votes were collated, Kwabena Boateng rather had 55.8% and Kwabena Owusu Aduomi had 43.3%.
Candidate choice
Baseline Survey
In this year’s upcoming elections, a survey of 5,881 voters have been conducted, with a confidence level of 99% and a margin of error of 1 .60%. Quite shocking, Dr. Bawumia is tipped to win with 38.9% over John Dramani Mahama who had 36.1%. A considerable number of 21.4% were undecided with 3.6 choosing other candidates.
Global Info Analytics
In the July polls with 5,490 respondents, confidence level of 99% and margin of error 1.73%, John Mahama has dropped from 54.3% in April to 51.1% in July. His competitor Dr. Bawumia who in April had 34.9% closed in with 3.2% in July, having polled 38.2%. The dynamic quite intriguing as 8% of those who were backing John Mahama in April have swayed to support Nana Kwame Bediako
Country’s direction
In the baseline survey, 68% of Ghanaians believe the country is headed in the wrong, with 22% believing it is headed in the right direction and10% had no opinion. The Global Info Analytics polls presented 65% and 63% viewing the nation as heading towards the wrong direction in April and July respectively. The percentage who believe the nation is in the right direction however appreciated from 25% in April to 27% in July.
Though the polls have made their predictions, there might be the “October Surprise” which has even started manifesting in the month-on-month polls conducted by Global Info Analytics. Many Analysts have tipped the lection to go in favour of the NDC and even in the case of a run- off, they will still beat the NPP. The voters in the upcoming election won’t just decide the future of the country but the future and credibility of the polls abovementioned.
