Fitch Ratings has lowered its 2026 forecast for global growth by 0.2 percentage points to 2.4%.
The forecast cuts have been widespread as higher inflation squeezes real wages, dampens consumption and raises companies’ input costs.
However, the impact of the oil shock on global activity is being cushioned by stronger-than-expected momentum in AI-related IT investment, supporting world trade and Asian exports.
“We have lowered 2026 growth forecasts since the March Global Economic Outlook (GEO) in the US and eurozone by 0.3 percentage points and 0.4 percentage points, respectively to 1.9% to 0.9%”, the UK-based firm said
Growth in emerging markets excluding China has been lowered by 0.2 percentage points to 3.2%, but China’s forecast has been raised by 0.3 percentage points to 4.6% following surprisingly good data in the first quarter 2026, and remarkable resilience in exports.
“We have also raised Korea’s forecast as export prospects benefit from the boom in global technology spending”, Fitch said.
“The oil price shock is hitting world growth prospects and increasing downside risks. But we are also amid a very pronounced boom in global spending on IT and that is cushioning the impact on activity in the near term, particularly in Asia,” said Brian Coulton, Chief Economist.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has now lasted 14 weeks and we assume it will not start to reopen until July”, he added.
