The latest survey by research organisation, Outcomes International has given Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the presidential candidate of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), a slight edge over John Mahama, the presidential candidate of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), in the December 2024 presidential election.
It indicated that if elections were held today, Dr. Bawumia would get 49.4% of the votes, Mr Mahama 45.1% with other presidential candidates 0.3% of the votes and undecided voters standing at 5.2%.
According to the survey, Bawumia is also projected to win 11 out of 16 regions, while former President John Mahama is expected to take five regions.
The survey was conducted between August 15 and September 15, surveyed thousands of registered voters across all regions of Ghana.
This is not the first time Dr Mahamudu Bawumia has taken the lead in polls, as various credible polls have put one candidate ahead of the other at different times.
Regional dominance
Dr Mahamudu Bawumia’s sweep of 11 regions is a significant boost to his campaign, particularly in the Ashanti Region, where he has regained the lead with 64% of the votes.
The Central Region, a critical and must-win region for the NPP, also shows a significant recovery for Bawumia.
Mahama’s challenge
Former President Mahama, who has been unsuccessful in his previous bids to return to power since 2016, faces an uphill battle.
His campaign has focused on resetting Ghana’s economy and governance, but it remains to be seen if this message will resonate with voters.
As the election draws near, both candidates will need to win over undecided voters and maintain their strongholds.
With the polls showing a close contest, the next few weeks will be crucial in determining the outcome of the election.
About the research
The 2024 general election is unique in several respects as the presidential candidates of the two dominant political parties, NPP and NDC, are both from the Northern part of the country.
The NPP is determined to break the usual eight-year cyclical rule with incumbent vice-President.
The NDC on the other hand is determined to take over after Akufo-Addo’s tenure.
Methodology
A quantitative research design was adopted for this study. The target population consists of all registered voters in the 2024 general elections, which is estimated to be about 17,000,000 people.
The study used multistage Probability Proportional to Size sampling (PPS) with implicit stratification to reduce the operational cost of the survey and better represent the country.
In every region, all the subsamples were obtained through three stages namely, the Primary Sampling Units (PSUs) were the constituencies in a region, the second-stage sampling units were the electoral areas in the selected constituencies, and the third-stage (final) sampling units were the registered voters in the selected electoral areas.
Regions and constituencies were used as the main stratification variables.
Data was obtained mainly through Computer-Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI) Technology.
The sample size was 65,500 registered voters and successfully interviewed 65,397 registered voters yielding a response rate of 99.84%.
Field work began on 15th August and ended on 15th September 2024.
The main purpose of this survey is to identify the likely winner of the December 2024 general election.
Among other things, the key determinants of voting decisions are also examined.
The main question “who will you vote for If elections were held today” produced very interesting results.
Result showed that “Dr. Bawumia will win in 11 out of 16 regions whiles Mr. Mahama wins in 5 regions.
The overall findings show a very close contest between Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (49.4%) and Mr. Mahama (45.1%).
However, 5.2% of the respondents were undecided while 0.3% of the respondents said they would vote for other candidates.”
Parliamentary seats
The question of which Parliamentary Candidate would be voted for if elections were held today, shows that the New Patriotic Party were likely to obtain majority seats in parliament. Figure 1B shows the findings for candidates in the Parliamentary contest.
The findings indicate that 52% of the respondents are likely to vote for the NPP candidates while 36% are likely to vote for the NDC candidates.
However, 7% indicated that they will vote for none of the candidates in the Parliamentary elections while 5% suggest that they will vote for other candidates other than the NPP and NDC candidates.
