A new post-2024 election survey conducted by Africa Policy Lens (APL) indicates that supporters of the governing National Democratic Congress (NDC) would prefer Ken Agyapong to win the New Patriotic Party (NPP) flagbearer slot for the 2028 general election.
Mr. Agyapong, according to the survey conducted in February this year, is apparently backed by NPP’s political opponents because he will be an easier prey to devour at the 2028 polls.
The main opposition NPP will be holding its presidential primaries on January 31, 2026, to elect its flagbearer for the 2028 polls.
Ahead of the primaries
Former Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia is already captured among NPP supporters as the clear favourite to lead the main opposition party into the next general election.
Dr Bawumia was far ahead in a simulated party primary conducted by the APL.
Significantly, 70.6% of self-identified NPP supporters among the respondents indicated they would back Dr Bawumia as the next flagbearer, with only 21.4% going for Mr Agyapong.
This overwhelming endorsement from the party faithful highlighted how firmly Dr. Bawumia, NPP’s 2024 presidential candidate, has secured the loyalty of the core NPP membership.
NDC supporters’ preference
The survey revealed a strategic cross-party dynamic, and nearly half, 48.4% of NDC-aligned respondents indicated they would support Agyapong in the same NPP contest.
In other words, many opposition voters appear to favour Agyapong, likely seeing him as an easy opponent as the NPP candidate.
According to the authors of the survey report, this tactical pattern showed how partisan loyalties influence perceptions of the race.
“NPP loyalists are coalescing around Bawumia while a substantial share of opposition voters back his intra-party rival, reshaping expectations for the 2028 campaign.
“These cross-party preferences add a layer of strategy to the race, the NDC base appears to be hedging by boosting Agyapong’s numbers,” the report suggested.
The Bawumia factor
Survey respondents cited several compelling reasons for Dr. Bawumia’s commanding victory in the NPP primaries. Foremost, he is widely perceived as the party’s most viable candidate to recapture power in 2028.
His Northern background is seen as a strategic electoral asset, enabling the NPP to compete strongly in regions where the NDC is not traditionally dominant and also to further boost the NPP as truly a national, non-discriminatory party.
Again, Dr Bawumia’s broad national appeal—evident in his lead across 12 of 16 regions—reinforces his image as a unifying figure with cross-regional support. Respondents also underscored his experience as Vice President and continuity of the party’s digitalisation and economic policies as key strengths.
Moreover, unlike his main rival Kennedy Agyapong, whose support base included many opposition voters, Dr Bawumia’s backing came solidly from within the NPP, giving his candidacy greater legitimacy in the eyes of core party delegates.
Regional support patterns
Dr Bawumia’s dominance extends across most of the country.
The survey reveals he is the leading candidate in 12 of Ghana’s 16 regions.
He tops polling in traditional NPP strongholds like Ashanti and Eastern Region, as well as competitive areas such as Greater Accra, indicating broad appeal.
However, Kennedy Agyapong leads in only three regions, namely Central, Volta, and Western North, with one region (Ahafo) evenly split.
Importantly, Dr Bawumia’s strength is especially pronounced in the northern regions as he would carry the Northern, North East and Upper West, Upper East and Savannah, even if only NDC-affiliated voters were surveyed.
This cross-party appeal in the North is a clear advantage. However, he still trails in traditional NDC bastions like Volta and parts of Western North, highlighting areas he will need to focus on to achieve a nationwide victory.
Factors for 2024 defeat
Respondents overwhelmingly blamed the NPP’s defeat on the dire economy.
Nearly three-quarters (74.8%) named “general economic conditions (hardships)”, such as rampant inflation, cedi depreciation, and rising unemployment, as the top reason for the loss.
Many noted that global shocks (the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war) had hurt livelihoods, leading voters to punish the government.
Notably, only small minorities cited other factors (about 5–6% mentioned corruption or abuse of power) for the NPP’s defeat.
Effects of public events
The survey also highlighted that public events hurt the NPP’s image.
These included large street protests (over illegal mining, corruption, etc.), organised labour strikes, biased media coverage, and bitter infighting during the primaries were all seen as making the party “very unattractive” before the vote. The party’s perceived failure to address the cost-of-living crisis, compounded by scandals and internal disunity, emerged as the main cause of the NPP’s 2024 defeat.
Outlook for 2028
Looking ahead, the APL survey positioned Dr. Bawumia as the early frontrunner in the 2028 presidential race.
In a simulated national vote, 35.8% of respondents indicated their preference for Dr. Bawumia, far outpacing the 19.8% for the likely NDC candidate, Prof. Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang, with Mr Kennedy Agyapong trailing further at roughly 12%. However, the contest remains highly uncertain, as a staggering 69% of respondents said it was too early to decide on the next election just one month into the new administration.
However, Dr Bawumia’s early lead among the 35.8% respondents gives him momentum, but converting that into victory will require energising the core NPP base and reaching out to floating voters across party lines.
