A new nationwide survey has projected former Minister for Energy, Mr. Boakye Kyeremanteng Agyarko as the leading candidate in the New Patriotic Party (NPP) National Chairmanship race in Kumasi on October 3, 2026.
The survey, conducted by Ghana Watch Initiative International (GWII) between 1 and 12 September 2026, indicated that Mr. Agyarko leads in 13 out of the 16 regions of the country and commands an absolute majority of support among sampled executives in all the 276 constituencies.
It also revealed that Mr. Agyarko entered the race with the strongest national support, the broadest regional footprint and a potential first-ballot advantage.
Overall, the survey put the former Energy Minister at 51.81%, placing him ahead of former NPP General Secretary John Boadu, who recorded 32.32%.
Former NPP National Chairman M r. Paul Afoko followed with 12.39%, while former NPP First Vice Chairman Sammy Crabbe polled 3.48%.
The findings were contained in the Candidate Assessment and Political Survey Report – NPP National Chairmanship 2026, dated September 15, 2026.
According to the final edition of the report, the survey sampled 2,098 respondents from the constituency executive structure.
The researchers led by Seth Adu-Adjei said this represented 40% of the constituency baseline of 5,244 and 29.30% of the official statutory delegate population of 7,160.
Agyarko leads in 13 regions
As stated earlier, beyond Mr. Agyarko’s national lead, the survey projected a strong geographical advantage for him in 13 of the 16 regions.
The survey identified his Agyarko’s strongest performances in the Ashanti Region, where he records 58.5%, followed by Eastern with 55.8% and Western North with 55.9%.
He also leads in Greater Accra with 53.7%, Upper West with 54.8%, Upper East with 53.5%, Ahafo with 54.3%, Bono East with 52.4%, Northern with 51.1%, Volta with 50.4%, Western with 52.7% and North East with 56.5%.
Mr. John Boadu, however, maintains leads in three regions: Bono, Central and Savannah.
He got 44.0% in Bono, 43.4% in Central and 45.3% in Savannah, describing the findings as 13-3 regional split with Mr. John Boadu’s support mainly concentrated in areas where he has strong organisational networks.
Projected delegate numbers
Based on the survey’s 51.81% national share, Mr. Agyarko is projected to receive approximately 3,710 votes if the preference pattern were replicated across the full statutory delegate college of 7,160.
Mr. John Boadu is projected to secure about 2,314 votes, while Afoko and Crabbe are projected to obtain approximately 887 and 249 votes respectively.
The survey report stressed that these projections assume that delegates outside the sampled constituency executive structure would have similar preferences to those surveyed.
It therefore described Mr. Agyarko as holding a potential majority rather than merely leading the field.
Agyarko’s strengths
The survey attributedMr. Agyarko’s strong performance partly to his ability to unite different factions within the NPP.
He received a leadership integrity rating of 4.2 out of five and was assessed as having strong technocratic credentials and cross-factional appeal.
The survey also identified his fundraising capacity, policy experience and ability to bridge different sections of the party as factors supporting his candidacy.
However, researchers also identified a potential weakness in his campaign: a comparatively limited grassroots organisational machine when compared with Mr John Boadu.
John Boadu remains a strong contender
Despite trailing Mr. Agyarko nationally, Mr. John Boadu’s 32.32% support places him firmly in second position.
The survey credited him with significant organisational experience, a strong mobilisation network and established relationships within the party.
It however suggested that Mr. John Boadu would need to expand his support beyond his strongest regions and attract support from other blocs to close the gap with Mr. Agyarko.
Afoko emerges as potential kingmaker
Mr. Afoko’s 12.39% showing could also become significant if the race becomes more competitive.
The survey described Afoko as having “kingmaker potential”, particularly because of his appeal among reformist and disaffected sections of the party.
According to the survey, 48% of Afoko supporters who expressed a second preference selected Agyarko, compared with 31% who chose Boadu.
The findings suggested that Mr. Afoko’s supporters could therefore play an important role if a second-ballot scenario emerges.
Survey cautions
Despite the strong projection for Mr. Agyarko, the researchers acknowledged limitations in the survey.
The sample of 2,098 respondents consists of constituency executives, while the official statutory delegate population is 7,160.
The projection to the full delegate college assumes that the preferences of other statutory delegates are broadly similar to those of constituency executives.
The survey also cautioned that delegate preferences could change before the national chairmanship election due to endorsements, campaign developments, alliances and other political events.
Agyarko’s race to lose
The survey concluded that, based on the current findings, the NPP National Chairmanship race is “Agyarko’s race to lose.”
With 51.81% support and leading in 13 of the 16 regions, the survey placed him in a strong position heading into the contest.
It nevertheless warned that the combined support of John Boadu, Afoko and Crabbe represents 48.19% of the surveyed preference and could become significant if their supporters consolidate behind a single candidate.
