A recent survey conducted by Africa Policy Lens (APL) offers positive indications for the main opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP) as the party prepares for the next general election in 2028, as the findings positioned Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia as the leading contender both within his party and nationally. According to the survey report, the former vice president remains the preferred candidate within the NPP and a prominent figure in Ghanaian politics.
It noted that, notwithstanding the NPP’s defeat in 2024, Dr Bawumia would play a key role in rebuilding the party’s momentum for the 2028 polls.
Bawumia leads NPP flagbearer race
The post-2024 general election survey by the APL revealed that Bawumia is in a dominant position as the NPP’s flagbearer for 2028.
He polled over 70% among NPP voters, showing he is highly favoured to lead the main opposition party into the next presidential election.
However, when respondents were asked to vote in a primary by the general public, 52% of them favoured Bawumia over his closest rival, Mr. Kennedy Agyapong, who garnered 36%.
This clear lead illustrates Dr Bawumia’s strength within the party, backed by his experience, recognition, and leadership in the 2024 campaign.
While Mr Agyepong’s passionate support base remains significant, Dr Bawumia is poised to secure the NPP’s nomination in the upcoming presidential primary slated for January 31, 2026.
The survey clearly underscored a likely two-horse race between Dr Bawumia and Mr Agyepong, with the former enjoying widespread support across the NPP base. While Mr Agyapong is influential, particularly in specific regions such as the Central Region, Dr Bawumia’s backing within the party is formidable.
Party-base and cross-party perspectives
The survey revealed into party loyalty and cross-party sentiments. Among self-identified NPP supporters, an overwhelming 70.6% preferred Bawumia as the NPP flagbearer. This strong support is indicative of the party’s trust in his leadership, built on his multiple elections as vice president and his familiarity with the Ghanaian electorate. However, the survey also highlights that nearly half of National Democratic Congress (NDC) supporters (48.4%) preferred Mr Agyapong, which suggests a potential strategy by opposition voters to choose a candidate they perceive as less formidable.
This dynamic emphasised the importance of appealing beyond the NPP’s core base to win the broader electorate.
Regional support patterns
Regional dynamics play a significant role in Ghana’s politics, and the APL survey confirmed expected regional patterns, with some notable shifts.
Dr. Bawumia enjoys support in 12 out of the 16 regions, including key NPP strongholds like Ashanti and Eastern Regions, as well as swing regions such as Greater Accra. This broad regional support is a positive indicator for the NPP’s prospects in the 2028 elections, suggesting that Dr Bawumia’s appeal transcends ethnic and regional divides.
Ken leads in 3 regions
Meanwhile, Agyapong leads in three regions: Central, Volta, and Western North, with a 50-50 tie in the Ahafo Region. While his lead in the Central Region is unsurprising given his long tenure as an MP for Assin Central, his performance in the Volta and Western North is noteworthy. These regions, which are traditionally strongholds of the NDC, the researchers noted, may have been swayed by opposition supporters who favour Agyapong as a less challenging candidate for the NDC in the 2028 race.
Bawumia’s strong appeal
Dr. Bawumia’s appeal is particularly strong in the northern regions, where he has the backing of voters who appreciate his identity as a northerner and a Muslim.
The survey revealed that the former Vice President would lead even in three northern regions (Northern, North East, and Upper West) if only NDC supporters were voting, showcasing his broad cross-party appeal in these areas.
This positions the former Vice President as a potential game-changer in Ghana’s northern belt, where the NDC has traditionally had strong support.
However, Dr Bawumia still faces challenges in regions like Volta, Oti, and parts of Western North, where the NDC maintains its dominance.
Areas to focus on
To secure a national victory, Dr Bawumia will need to invest effort into these regions by addressing local concerns, engaging community leaders, and building bridges with skeptical voters.
Agyapong’s regional strength
While Bawumia is the frontrunner, Mr Agyapong’s regional support cannot be overlooked.
Mr Agyepong’s anti-establishment persona and vocal stance on issues like corruption have earned him support among voters disillusioned with traditional politics.
His strength in Volta, despite the region’s historical leanings toward the NDC, demonstrates his appeal to a segment of the electorate that may find his candidacy refreshing.
Mr Agyepong’s crossover appeal will be a factor the NPP must navigate, potentially integrating some of his populist rhetoric into the party’s approach.
Outlook for the 2028 presidential race
Looking ahead to the 2028 presidential race, the APL survey indicates that Dr. Bawumia is the early frontrunner, with 35.8% of respondents indicating they would vote for him if the election were held today.
This places him ahead of the likely NDC candidate, Prof. Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang, who garnered 19.8% in the survey. Bawumia’s early lead is significant, suggesting that he remains a strong contender despite the NPP’s 2024 loss.
Other potential candidates, such as Agyepong (12.1%) and NDC Chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketiah (10.1%), trail behind Bawumia.
The survey showed that, at this stage, Bawumia is well-positioned to contest the presidency in 2028, with the possibility of securing the NPP’s return to power.
However, the survey also highlights a sizable 69% of undecided voters, underscoring the unpredictability of the race. While Bawumia is currently the favourite, he will need to consolidate his position, energise the NPP base, and reach out to floating voters to secure a decisive victory in 2028.
Wayforward
The APL post-election survey offers a snapshot of Ghana’s political landscape, showing that Dr. Bawumia remains the most likely candidate to lead the NPP into the 2028 elections.
His broad support across the country, especially in key northern regions, positions him as a strong contender. However, challenges remain in certain regions, and the NPP will need to work on expanding its base and appealing to undecided voters.
For the NDC, the survey serves as a wake-up call, signaling that Bawumia’s popularity is not easily dismissed.
The 2028 race promises to be a highly competitive contest, shaped by both party strategies and the evolving political climate.
By Kyei Boateng
