The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) is predicting that the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) will defeat the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) in the December 7, 2024, general election if it presents a fresh candidate.
It is making the prediction based on the fact that the NPP government has had two terms in power under the leadership of President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo.
“After two terms of NPP government, we expect the NDC to win the 2024 presidential election and to gain a small majority in Parliament,” the EIU stated in its latest report.
The Unit in the 25-page report said it was also expecting the NDC to introduce a new candidate although there are rumours that former President John Dramani Mahama who is also the party’s 2020 flagbearer will contest again.
“The next parliamentary and presidential elections are due in 2024. Under the constitutionally mandated term limits, Mr. Akufo-Addo cannot run for a third term. Mr. Mahama is reportedly considering whether to run again, but we expect the NDC to seek to revitalize its prospects with a fresh candidate”, EIU stated.
Touching on the current political dynamics in Parliament, the report indicated that, while the NPP is at an advantage because it holds the Majority in the House, ensuring unity among members has always been difficult.
Giving examples, the EIU noted that the election of the current Speaker of Parliament, Alban Sumana Kingsford Bagbin who is a senior member of the NDC as against the President’s choice of former Speaker, Professor Mike Oquaye is a clear indication that the members are divided.
“The opposition NDC was able to elect its choice for Speaker of Parliament, with 138 votes, against 136 votes for the NPP’s candidate.
The breakdown of votes is kept secret, but at least one NPP politician did not vote for the party’s nomination.”
The report also alleged that “with the Speaker role secured, the NDC could block ministerial appointments and potentially withhold parliamentary assent for major policies, leading Mr. Akufo-Addo’s administration into concessions and compromises with the NDC”.