Barely 15 months into the administration of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), the governing party’s bigwigs are jostling to succeed President John Dramani Mahama.
President Mahama will be constitutionally barred from running for presidential elections in Ghana as he will be ending his legally allowed two terms in office on January 6, 2029.
Accordingly, some NDC kingpins have been campaigning overtly and covertly to take over as the governing party’s flagbearer for the 2028 general election, ignoring the cries of the majority of Ghanaians that it is too early to start the presidential race when the government is still struggling to fulfil even 30 percent of its alluring campaign promises.
For instance, Mr Johnson Asiedu Nketiah, NDC National Chairman and Board Chairman of Ghana Ports and Harbours Authority (GPHA) is surreptitiously campaigning across the country ahead of the presidential primary, in the name of ‘Thank You’ tour.
Others who are Ministers of State are also engaged in whispering and covert campaigns for the top post as they fear being axed from government if they do open campaign.
Africa Policy Lens (APL) Survey
It is probably due to what some political watchers have described as indecent haste to succeed President Mahama that a policy think-tank, Africa Policy Lens (APL) has decided to conduct a survey on who will possibly be leading the NDC into the next presidential election.
Methodology
APL collected data over a three-day period from April 17–19, 2026, using a structured survey instrument.
The survey was administered through bulk SMS distribution, allowing respondents to access and complete the questionnaire remotely.
This method enabled rapid deployment across all constituencies, standardised delivery of the survey instrument, and efficient collection of responses within a short timeframe.
Survey findings
The survey revealed a closely contested internal race within the NDC, with Mr Johnson Asiedu Nketiah and the Chief of Staff Mr Julius Debrah emerging as the two leading contenders.
The findings, drawn from responses by NDC Constituency Executives across all 276 constituencies, indicated a highly competitive landscape with no clear frontrunner.
A total of 2,408 responses were recorded at the close of the poll.
Rather than a dominant figure pulling ahead, the data showed a fluid and dynamic race, with narrow margins separating the top contenders and voter preferences split almost evenly at the upper end.
According to the poll, Mr Asiedu Nketiah and Julius Debrah are widely recognised as experienced political actors with strong organisational backgrounds and deep influence within party structures and national politics.
Strength of the two contenders
Mr Asiedu Nketiah polled 31.9%, reflecting strong support from respondents who value long-standing political experience, communication strength, and internal party leadership.
His reputation as a seasoned strategist continues to position him as a dominant voice in the race.
On the other hand, Mr Julius Debrah followed closely with 30.1%, benefiting from perceptions of calm leadership, administrative experience, and technocratic competence.
Many respondents described him as a steady and unifying figure with the ability to manage governance challenges effectively.
Still an open race
Despite prominence of the two leading contenders, the Africa Policy Lens poll stressed that the race remains wide open.
The data did not show a decisive lead for either candidate, suggesting that shifts in campaign dynamics, party mobilisation, and national developments could significantly alter future standings.
Other possible strong contenders
Below the top tier, the poll identified a second group of credible contenders led by Haruna Iddrisu and Cassiel Ato Forson, both of whom are described as forming a strong and competitive second tier with growing influence.
Mr Haruna Iddrisu, the current Minister for Education and MP for Tamale South placed third, polling 17.9%.
He is widely regarded as a strong political communicator with extensive parliamentary experience and a solid grassroots base.
His visibility in national policy debates has helped maintain his relevance within the evolving political landscape.
Meanwhile, Dr Cassiel Ato Forson, Minister for Finance and MP for Ajumako-Enyan-Esiam secured fourth place with 13.0%.
He is viewed as a key economic figure within the party, with respondents associating him with fiscal policy expertise and leadership on economic issues in Parliament.
The poll suggested that even though both figures are currently behind the top two, they remain within striking distance, especially in a political environment where alliances, endorsements, and campaign momentum could quickly shift voter sentiment.
Other contenders also featured in the survey
Vice President Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang polled 3.6%, while Minister for Foreign Affairs Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa recorded 1.0%.
Overall, the Africa Policy Lens findings paint a picture of a highly competitive and unpredictable race within the NDC.
Rather than a single dominant candidate, the data reveals a cluster of strong contenders with relatively close levels of support at the top.
The survey’s conclusion is clear: there is no outright frontrunner at this stage.
Instead, the contest is defined by a tight battle between Asiedu Nketiah and Julius Debrah at the top, with Haruna Iddrisu and Cassiel Ato Forson forming a credible and influential second tier.
Looking ahead
As the political landscape continues to evolve, analysts suggest that future developments, ranging from internal party dynamics to national issues and campaign strategies, will play a decisive role in determining the eventual outcome of this closely watched contest.
